This track forecast uncertainty made preparations in Florida challenging therefore, we wanted to better understand why Dorian took the track that it did, to see what this tells us about the factors that affect hurricane tracks, and learn for future storms. Some early forecasts showed the storm moving directly into or across Florida others correctly showed the storm stalling over the Bahamas and then turning northward. Hurricane Dorian was a catastrophic hurricane for the Bahamas and got very close to Florida without directly impacting the state. This study demonstrates the utility of ensemble datasets for studying TC forecast uncertainty and the importance of medium-range modeling of synoptic-scale steering features to accurately predict the track of tropical cyclones. An examination of four members further highlights the differences in steering and the strength of the subtropical ridge. Despite some early track differences, the correlation between early and late track errors was not significant. Subtle differences in the synoptic pattern over the United States also appeared to affect the timing of Dorian’s northward turn, specifically the strength of a shortwave trough moving over the Ohio Valley. Key differences were found in the strength of the subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic Ocean with a weaker ridge and slower easterly steering flow in the offshore groups. Ensemble sensitivity techniques were applied to identify areas that were most critical for Dorian’s track. Four clusters of members were analyzed based on the 7-day track, characterized by Dorian moving: 1) slowly near the northern Bahamas (closest to reality), 2) across the Florida Peninsula, 3) slowly into Florida’s east coast, and 4) quickly north of the Bahamas. Track spread was particularly critical at long lead times (5–7 days after initialization near the Lesser Antilles), because of the uncertainty in the location of landfall and hazards. A set of 80 ensemble forecasts from the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) was produced to evaluate Dorian’s track spread and the factors that contributed to it. It is not an indication of the Dorian's size.Hurricane Dorian (2019), a category-5 tropical cyclone (TC), was characterized by a large spread in track forecasts as it moved northwest. The blue shaded "cone of uncertainty" is where the storm could possibly go. The blue line is the path predicted by the National Hurricane Center. The map below shows Dorian's location and projected path. The region is bracing for 4 to 8 inches of rain this week, with 10 inches in isolated areas.Ītlanta Motor Speedway is opening its camping facilities to evacuees, and the Red Cross of Georgia is in preparation mode. Brian Kemp expanded his state of emergency to include nine more counties, for a total of 21, and issued a mandatory evacuation order for residents of who live east of I-95 in six Georgia counties.Ī hurricane watch has been extended to the entire Georgia coast. » South Georgia wary of Dorian: 'I don't know if we can stand another one' » Storm forecast to become a major hurricane later Friday » Georgia officials keep eye on how Dorian will affect Labor Day weekend » Georgia counties under a state of emergency » Airbnb offering free housing for evacuees, relief workers » Georgians told to evacuate coastal areas ahead of Hurricane Dorian
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